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China forecast to overtake US as world’s biggest economy by 2016
According to a new report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), China is on track for a fourth consecutive decade of rapid growth and will overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy in 2016.
After 7.8 per cent growth last year, its lowest in more than a decade, China’s economy will rebound to 8.5 per cent growth this year and 8.9 per cent in 2014, the OECD said.
Provided Beijing implement a series of economic, financial and regulatory reforms, many of which are already done, the OECD forecast that China will average 8 per cent growth in per capita terms during the current decade.
The OECD forecast is well ahead of Beijing’s official target of 7 per cent average growth in the five years to the end of 2015, with the Chinese economy being set to become as large as that of the US by around 2016 when assessed in purchasing power parity terms, which factor in price differences between countries according to Angel Gurria, head of the Paris-based club of 34 global economies. “China is the one country that always lowers their target growth. At the OECD we always say they’re going to grow (between) half a per cent and one per cent more than their forecast,” he added.
However, the OECD also noted that growth would gradually decline as China catches up with more advanced economies.